Nintendo has released a cautious sales projection for the Switch 2, citing concerns over ongoing tariff uncertainties, according to industry analysts.
In its financial report today, Nintendo projected 15 million Switch 2 units and 45 million game sales for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The Switch 2 is set to launch on June 5.
Nintendo noted that its forecast assumes the U.S. tariff rates, effective since April 10, will remain unchanged through the fiscal year. However, the company acknowledged that shifts in tariff policies could impact projections. “We will keep monitoring market dynamics to adapt as needed,” Nintendo stated.
Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, described the 15 million unit target as “conservative” in a tweet, suggesting Nintendo is accounting for unpredictability in tariffs, pricing, and production despite strong pre-order demand.
Ahmad added that Nintendo might revise its forecast upward if tariffs are lifted. “The challenge lies in the ripple effects already underway, creating a tough landscape for a console launch, alongside the risk of escalating tariffs,” he noted.
Notably, achieving 15 million Switch 2 sales in its debut year would rank among the most successful console launches ever, surpassing the original Switch’s 14.87 million units sold in its first year.
Demand for the Switch 2 appears robust. Following a tariff-related delay, pre-orders began on April 24, with the console priced at $449.99 — and they sold as expected. Meanwhile, Nintendo has cautioned U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store, stating that high demand may prevent guaranteed delivery on the release date.
Visit IGN's Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide for details.
