Market research firm DFC Intelligence forecasts the Nintendo Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This prediction positions the Switch 2 as the clear leader, even before its official release. Learn more about this impressive forecast.
Dominating the Market: 80 Million Units by 2028
DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, names the Nintendo Switch 2 the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. Nintendo is predicted to lead the console market, surpassing competitors Microsoft and Sony. This projection stems from the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 launch, giving it a significant head start. The report projects sales of 15-17 million units in 2025, soaring to over 80 million by 2028. The high demand might even challenge Nintendo's manufacturing capacity.
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects remain in early stages. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, with a potential three-year gap before their release (barring any surprise launches), the Switch 2's market dominance is expected to continue. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success. While unspecified, a hypothetical "PS6" is mentioned as having potential due to PlayStation's established fanbase and strong game IPs.
Nintendo's Switch is already breaking records. Circana (formerly NPD) reports that lifetime Switch sales in the US have surpassed those of the PlayStation 2. Mat Piscatella, executive director and analyst at Circana, announced on BlueSky that the Switch, with 46.6 million units sold, is now the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is noteworthy despite a reported 3% decrease in Switch sales this year.
A Bright Future for the Video Game Industry
DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the video game industry. Founder and CEO David Cole states that after a two-year downturn, the industry is poised for strong growth through the end of the decade, having grown over 20 times in the past three decades. 2025 is anticipated to be a particularly strong year, fueled by new releases. In addition to the Switch 2, the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI is slated for a 2025 release, further boosting overall sales.
The video game audience is also expanding, projected to reach over 4 billion players by 2027. The increasing popularity of high-end mobile gaming and the rise of esports and gaming influencers are contributing factors to this growth, driving hardware sales for both PCs and consoles.
