It's been a whirlwind week for U.S. gamers, starting with the highly anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, which quickly turned sour with its $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour. The roller coaster continued as Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden, sweeping tariffs on global trade. These tariffs, affecting nearly every nation, have left gamers wondering: what's next for the Nintendo Switch 2? Will its price surge even higher when pre-orders finally open?
We've explored the reasons behind the Nintendo Switch 2's high cost and the potential industry-wide effects of these new tariffs elsewhere. However, the burning question remains: what will Nintendo do? In my usual approach to such queries, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, their insights typically provide a solid understanding of likely outcomes, backed by data and evidence. Yet, this week's developments have left even these seasoned analysts stumped, with many offering only tentative predictions amidst the current chaos.
Here's a summary of the analysts' varied perspectives:
Sky-High Switch
Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to adjust prices post-announcement. However, the pre-order delay has shifted his view. He now believes Nintendo may have no choice but to raise prices, not just for the console but also for games and accessories. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes," Toto said. He anticipates a possible base model price of $500 due to the "sky-high tariffs."
Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, also foresees an increase in game prices, including those from Nintendo, though the extent and specifics are uncertain. He notes the tariffs' surprise and impact on international supply chains, suggesting that every business will need to reevaluate U.S. consumer pricing. "The haphazard and chaotic nature of the tariffs and their announcement obviously has many scrambling to navigate the fallout," Piscatella added.
Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts an increase in hardware prices due to tariffs, but believes software, particularly digital distribution, may be less affected. "If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins," Rosier explained.
Holding the Line
On the other hand, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, believes Nintendo will strive to maintain its announced price of $449.99. He suggests that the company has already factored in the volatility of Trump's tariffs into its pricing strategy. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks," van Dreunen said. However, he acknowledges the potential for reassessment if the trade situation worsens.
Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, echoes van Dreunen's sentiment, warning of potential consumer backlash if Nintendo raises prices further. He suggests Nintendo is hoping for a resolution to the tariff issue in the coming weeks. "Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now," Harding-Rolls stated.
Living in Unhinged Times
Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He points to Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in some markets as a potential move to encourage digital purchases. "The tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode," Elliott said. He also warned of broader negative impacts on the gaming industry and the U.S. economy due to the tariffs, suggesting they will ultimately burden consumers.
Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery
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Elliott's broader outlook on the gaming industry underlines the severity of the situation. He suggests that while some manufacturers, including Nintendo, have shifted production to avoid tariffs, the unpredictability of future tariffs complicates these efforts. "We are living in...there’s no other word for it...unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)," Elliott concluded, emphasizing the detrimental effects on consumers and the economy at large.
